Market Update | October 14, 2026
China’s tungsten market has undergone a dramatic reversal in 2026. After an extraordinary rally during the first quarter, tungsten prices have fallen sharply, putting pressure on miners, smelters, tungsten powder producers, cemented carbide manufacturers, and downstream industrial buyers.
According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), on October 12, the average price of Chinese wolframite concentrate with a minimum grade of 65% WO₃ stood at RMB 337,000 per standard tonne. This compares with the record high of RMB 1,050,500 per standard tonne recorded on March 12, representing a decline of approximately 67.9% in seven months.
Other major tungsten products have experienced similarly severe corrections. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) fell from RMB 1,515,000 per tonne at its March peak to RMB 500,000 per tonne on October 12. Tungsten powder declined from RMB 2,400 per kilogram to RMB 805 per kilogram over the same period.
These figures demonstrate that the current downturn is not limited to raw materials. The correction has extended across multiple stages of the tungsten value chain.
Source: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), October 12, 2026.
The current decline reflects a combination of weaker industrial demand, inventory pressure, changing purchasing behavior, and the unwinding of speculative positions accumulated during the previous rally.
Tungsten is an essential material in cemented carbide cutting tools, mining equipment, metalworking tools, wear-resistant components, and other industrial applications.
During the first quarter of 2026, rapidly rising prices encouraged buyers to secure raw materials and maintain inventories. However, exceptionally high prices also increased production costs for downstream manufacturers.
As a result, some buyers reduced purchasing volumes, postponed procurement, or switched to smaller, order-driven purchases.
SMM's October market assessment identified weak end-user demand as a major factor behind the prolonged price decline. The lack of sufficient downstream orders has made it difficult for the market to absorb available material.
As prices continued to decline, market participants became increasingly cautious.
Some traders and material holders have sought to reduce inventories and recover cash rather than wait for a potential rebound. This behavior can accelerate price declines when buyers are simultaneously delaying purchases.
The October market reports describe heavier selling pressure, limited trading activity, and continued downward price adjustments following China's National Day holiday.
In such an environment, lower quotations do not necessarily produce an immediate recovery in transactions. Buyers may continue waiting for prices to stabilize, while sellers become increasingly willing to negotiate.
The scale of the preceding rally is essential to understanding the current correction.
In early January 2026, the average price of 65% wolframite concentrate was approximately RMB 453,500 per standard tonne. By March 12, it had climbed to RMB 1,050,500.
The subsequent decline has therefore erased a substantial portion of the first-quarter price increase.
A market that experiences such an unusually rapid appreciation can become vulnerable to profit-taking, inventory adjustments, and a reassessment of future demand. When these factors occur together, prices can fall much faster than during an ordinary industrial downturn.
However, the magnitude of the correction alone does not prove that tungsten has entered a long-term structural bear market. The direction of the next phase will depend on whether real industrial demand recovers and whether supply becomes more or less constrained.
The downturn will not affect every participant in the same way.
Mining and raw-material suppliers
Lower selling prices can compress margins, particularly for producers with relatively high extraction costs. Companies holding inventories purchased at earlier, higher prices may also face valuation losses or reduced profitability.
Smelters and tungsten powder manufacturers
These businesses must manage the gap between raw-material acquisition costs and selling prices. When finished-product prices fall faster than existing input costs, operating margins can deteriorate even if raw materials are becoming cheaper.
Cemented carbide and industrial tooling manufacturers
Lower tungsten prices may eventually reduce material costs. However, the benefit depends on inventory turnover, purchasing contracts, production efficiency, and the timing of price adjustments.
Industrial buyers
Manufacturers that consume tungsten-bearing materials may find the current environment more favorable for procurement negotiations. Nevertheless, purchasing too early during a falling market can create inventory losses, while waiting too long may expose buyers to a rebound.
The key distinction is between a lower market quotation and a lower actual production cost. These are not necessarily the same thing, particularly when businesses still hold expensive inventories.
Over the next three months, the market is likely to be determined by three principal variables: downstream demand, inventory liquidation, and the resilience of upstream supply.
The following assessment presents possible market scenarios rather than guaranteed price predictions.
Condition: Industrial orders remain weak, buyers continue purchasing only for immediate needs, and suppliers prioritize inventory reduction.
Under this scenario, tungsten prices could remain under downward pressure through November and December. Prices may continue to test lower levels as sellers compete for limited orders.
The risk would be particularly significant if cemented carbide manufacturers fail to experience the traditional year-end improvement in orders or if existing inventories prove sufficient to cover near-term consumption.
Condition: The pace of inventory liquidation slows, selling pressure eases, and lower prices encourage buyers to resume essential procurement.
This scenario would involve a transition from rapid declines to a period of consolidation. Prices could fluctuate as buyers and sellers negotiate a new equilibrium.
A reduction in selling pressure would be an encouraging sign, but stabilization alone would not establish that a sustained recovery had begun. Stronger transaction volumes and improving end-user orders would be needed to confirm a more durable change in direction.
Condition: Lower prices stimulate renewed purchasing, year-end orders improve, or upstream supply constraints become more significant.
Under these circumstances, tungsten prices could experience a short-term rebound. Buyers that have delayed procurement may return to the market, while producers may become less willing to accept further price reductions.
However, a rebound caused mainly by restocking should be distinguished from a recovery supported by sustained industrial consumption. If end-user demand remains weak, any recovery may prove temporary.
Period | Key market variable | Outlook |
Mid-October to November | Selling pressure and inventory reduction | Downward pressure may persist |
November to December | Cemented carbide orders and replenishment demand | Stabilization becomes possible if transactions improve |
December to mid-January 2027 | Year-end inventory decisions and new-order visibility | Direction will depend on demand recovery and supply discipline |
Base case: A cautious, weak-to-stable market is a reasonable working assumption for the next three months, with the possibility of further declines before a durable bottom emerges. A meaningful recovery would require clearer evidence of stronger demand and reduced selling pressure.
This assessment is qualitative. Publicly available evidence as of October 14 does not establish a sufficiently reliable numerical price target for January 2027.
For manufacturers that consume tungsten or tungsten carbide, the current market offers both opportunities and risks.
First, buyers should distinguish between raw-material prices and the prices of finished products. Tungsten powder, carbide grades, inserts, mining tools, and specialized industrial components have different production costs and pricing mechanisms.
Second, procurement should reflect actual consumption. For businesses with stable demand, staged purchases may reduce the risk of committing the entire inventory budget during a falling market. For highly specialized materials, however, supply security and lead times may be more important than short-term price movements.
Third, buyers should monitor actual transaction prices rather than relying exclusively on quoted offers. During periods of weak liquidity, the difference between an indicative quotation and an executable transaction can become significant.
Finally, manufacturers should review supplier quotations, delivery schedules, inventory exposure, and contractual price-adjustment terms together. A lower raw-material price can create an opportunity, but the commercial benefit depends on how quickly it flows through the supply chain.
China's tungsten market has experienced a major correction following the exceptional price increases of early 2026. The latest data indicate that prices across the raw-material and intermediate-product segments have retreated substantially from their record highs.
For the remainder of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, the central question is no longer simply how far prices have fallen. It is whether lower prices will stimulate enough real industrial demand to absorb available inventories.
If demand remains weak and sellers continue to prioritize cash recovery, further downward pressure cannot be ruled out. If inventory levels decline and industrial orders improve, the market may gradually stabilize.
For industrial manufacturers and procurement teams, the most effective strategy is to remain flexible, monitor verified market quotations, and align purchasing decisions with actual production requirements rather than attempting to identify the exact market bottom.
The coming three months will provide a clearer indication of whether the current correction is approaching a sustainable floor or whether the tungsten market still needs further adjustment.
