POSTED ON SEP 9, 2025 BY HANION Petroleum Equipment LTD

Recently, the global cemented carbide market has been experiencing dramatic price fluctuations, with tungsten carbide, the core raw material, seeing a particularly sharp increase. Since the beginning of 2025, the price of tungsten carbide powder has continued to climb. As of September 9, it has surged to 500 yuan per kilogram, marking a 30.1% increase since the start of the year. This trend has not only heightened concerns among cemented carbide manufacturers but also profoundly impacted the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain.

The continued contraction on the supply side is the primary driver behind the rising prices of tungsten carbide. Domestically, China’s first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 was set at only 58,000 tons, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 6.45%—the largest drop in five years. In major tungsten ore-producing regions such as Jiangxi and Hunan, quota utilization rates have remained at only 70%-80%. Moreover, with the implementation of the Central Environmental Protection Inspection Team’s rectification plan, many small and medium-sized mines have been forced to suspend or reduce operations due to non-compliance with environmental standards or prohibitively high transformation costs. For example, production restrictions on mineral processing and smelting in certain areas of Hunan have led to a sharp decline in tungsten concentrate output. At the same time, although tungsten ore imports surged by 40% year-on-year in the first quarter, the increase from overseas sources is difficult to realize in the short term. Key projects such as the Bakuta Mine in Kazakhstan are expected to take 2-3 years to achieve large-scale production due to lengthy construction periods, making it difficult to alleviate the current supply shortage.

Explosive growth on the demand side has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance in the tungsten carbide market. In the military industry, global arms upgrades and the advancement of Europe’s “Fatian Plan” have led to a surge in demand for high-end tungsten materials. Additionally, the construction of emerging scientific and technological projects, such as nuclear fusion test reactors, has created new growth opportunities for the tungsten market. It is estimated that the annual demand for tungsten materials for such projects is as high as 3,000 tons, accounting for approximately 5% of global tungsten consumption. In the civilian sector, the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry has driven a sharp increase in demand for tungsten wires, a key consumable. The growing penetration of photovoltaic tungsten wires has further boosted demand for tungsten carbide.

Policy factors have also played a significant role in the price increase of tungsten carbide. On July 1, the newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People’s Republic of China" came into effect, designating tungsten as a strategic mineral resource and implementing stricter protective mining measures. This move has not only increased environmental protection costs and compliance requirements for tungsten mining companies but also reinforced market expectations of tightening tungsten supply, thereby pushing up prices. Furthermore, China’s export controls on key tungsten products such as ammonium paratungstate and tungsten carbide have somewhat intensified the supply tightness in the international market, leading to a sharp rise in global tungsten prices that has subsequently affected the domestic market.

For foreign trade companies engaged in the sale of cemented carbide products, the sustained rise in tungsten carbide prices has undoubtedly imposed significant cost pressures. To address this challenge, companies must actively communicate with suppliers to secure more stable raw material supplies and reasonable pricing terms. At the same time, they need to maintain close communication with downstream customers to jointly develop strategies for coping with price increases, such as rationally adjusting product prices and optimizing product structures. Additionally, enterprises should increase investment in technological research and innovation, reducing reliance on single raw materials like tungsten carbide by improving production efficiency and developing new materials, thereby enhancing their ability to withstand market fluctuations.

Looking ahead, in the short term, tungsten carbide prices are likely to remain volatile within the current high range. Due to mining quota restrictions, environmental policy constraints, and the slow release of new production capacity, supply-side tensions will be difficult to alleviate quickly, continuing to support prices. Although demand remains strong in certain sectors, downstream companies are exercising caution in purchasing due to high costs, and global economic uncertainties are suppressing traditional industrial demand, limiting further upward price movement. It is expected that over the next 1-2 quarters, the price of tungsten carbide powder will fluctuate within the range of 400-500 yuan per kilogram.

From a medium-term perspective (1-3 years), with the continued expansion of emerging industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and the military sector, demand for tungsten carbide is expected to maintain steady growth. If there is no significant improvement on the supply side—such as delays in the commissioning of large-scale overseas mining projects or no major adjustments to domestic mining policies—tungsten carbide prices will gradually rise driven by demand. However, in response to cost pressures, industry players may accelerate technological innovation and product optimization, partially reducing reliance on tungsten carbide and somewhat curbing price increases. The average annual price increase is projected to be around 10%-15%.

In the long term (beyond 3 years), the scarcity of global tungsten ore resources will become increasingly prominent. As tungsten ore resources are continuously exploited, high-quality ore sources are gradually diminishing, and mining costs are rising. Moreover, as countries place greater emphasis on strategic mineral resources, supply-side controls will become stricter. On the demand side, the need for tungsten carbide in emerging technology fields will continue to expand, with potential applications in areas such as quantum computing and artificial intelligence hardware manufacturing gradually emerging. Prices are expected to maintain an upward trend. However, with technological advancements, the large-scale production of new materials that can partially tungsten carbide’s properties, or major breakthroughs in tungsten carbide recycling technology that significantly improve recovery rates, could mitigate the steepness of price increases. Overall, under the dual influence of global resource strategies and technological development, the long-term upward trend in tungsten carbide prices is unlikely to reverse, though the magnitude of fluctuations may change due to technological innovations. Companies in the cemented carbide industry must be fully prepared to actively respond to the challenges posed by rising prices and seize new opportunities arising from industry transformations.